I know people might think I’m too cynical for saying such a thing, but in a situation like this I would like to think I’m being very realistic. For all of those who question my thinking, let me take you though my personal history with professional and collegiate athletes.

You see I used to worship these guys, like I’m sure most of us did when we were eight years old. The walls of my room were literally covered with posters that I got out of issues of Sports Illustrated for Kids. I thought every single one of those guys I read about in that magazine walked on water — well, except for Kordell Stewart.

For the longest time I had this idea that athletes could do no wrong. I thought all of them were honest men that would never cheat on their wives, smoke marijuana or choke their coaches. Boy, did they dupe me.

I think the scandal that rocked my adolescence more than any other was the rampant steroid usage in baseball. I remember being perpetually glued to the TV in the summer of 1998, watching as Sammy Sosa and Mark McGuire chased the home run record. This was when my love for baseball truly blossomed.

So a few years later when Jose Canseco said a majority of MLB players were using steroids, I thought he was crazy. It was just his way of trying to make money on his new book. Nothing more than a publicity stunt. Slowly but surely, we all started to realize that Jose wasn’t bluffing and a good number of ball players were juicing. I didn’t want to admit it, but my heroes were starting to prove me wrong.

For the next few years, the sports world would start to experience many more scandals that would follow the same framework of their steroidal predecessor. An athlete would be accused of something, the general public would dismiss it as a rumor and then, in due time, the truth would come out. A few examples include Reggie Bush getting paid, Michael Vick killing dogs and Michael Jordan making Space Jam for the sole purpose of paying off his gambling debts. (That last one might be questionable, but not totally absurd.)

The most recent example would be Tiger Woods. When things started to unravel for the world’s greatest golfer, a lot of us defended Tiger, saying all these accusations of infidelity were just tabloid fodder. Sure enough, the original reports were closer to the truth than we thought.

So earlier this year when Cam Newton was accused of accepting money to play at Auburn, I didn’t even question it. In all reality, when asked about the situation he never actually denied any wrongdoing. He just glazed over the question with poorly worded sports cliches.

It’s sad that I’ve come to this point — where I assume that famous athletes are guilty until proven innocent — but that’s just the reality of the situation. I’ve been fooled many times before and I refuse to be fooled again.

You can stream the podcast by simply clicking on the link below, or you can download it to your computer by right-clicking the link and selecting “Save Link As” from the menu.

Listen to: Rhombus Podcast 033 — The PB&J Report (2011.01.05)

You can stream the podcast by simply clicking on the link below, or you can download it to your computer by right-clicking the link and selecting “Save Link As” from the menu.

Listen to: Rhombus Podcast 031 — The PB&J Report (2010.12.10)

Just a few days ago, TCU announced they will be leaving the Mountain West Conference for the greener BCS pastures of the Big East. I will be the first to admit my disdain for the Big East and their automatic BCS bid, but I also think this was the best landing spot for the Horned Frogs. I would even say it was the best move made by any of the three teams leaving the MWC.

When it comes right down to it, we know this was all about the money. Going to a BCS conference means BCS money and a BCS television contract. While it’s true that Utah will jump on a similar gravy train in the Pac-12, TCU will only have to split their money between nine other schools, as opposed to the 11 schools Utah will have to share with. BYU will get its own contract with ESPN, but it won’t come close to what TCU will be hauling in every year.

TCU is also going to a significantly weaker conference. Some might say this will put them at a disadvantage, but I beg to differ. If Gary Patterson continues his winning ways, the Horned Frogs should compete for a conference championship every year — and that means going to a BCS game. I could see how the soft schedule would work against them if, for example, Utah and TCU were both to go undefeated in their respective BCS conferences. I could see Utah getting the nod for the national championship game and TCU being shut out. In fact, we saw this happen last year when an undefeated Cincinnati team was shut out from playing in the title game.

To be completely honest, I don’t see Utah going into the Pac-12 and winning a conference championship in their first five years. By that time, TCU could win three or four. They are that good of a football program and they will play in a very winnable conference.

Another huge factor I think people are missing out on is the presence of East Coast bias. People in New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania will now be seeing TCU on a regular basis at a viewer-friendly hour. The Pac-10 still struggles to earn the respect of the media back east, because they simply don’t see any of their games. TCU should have no problem getting all kinds of attention in their new position.

While TCU will enjoy a soft football schedule, tons of money and a lot more attention, they will also have to endure lengthy road trips and watch their basketball team get mauled every year in conference play. TCU does have a phenomenal baseball program that will see some better competition, but they will struggle in the rest of the Olympic sports. But like I said, in the end it’s all about the money — and TCU will be making bank.

It’s interesting to think that TCU got the best deal out of the three teams leaving because they made their decision a little later in the game. I guess there’s some truth in that whole “patience is a virtue” thing.

Stats that need to be thrown around:

1) BYU’s record under Bronco Mendenhall when leading after three quarters prior to Saturday’s BYU-Utah game?  48-1. Last loss was in 2005 vs. TCU in overtime, 50-51.

2) Not since BYU’s 23-20 overtime loss to Boston College in 2006 had the Cougars lost a game decided by 7 points or fewer. That is absurd.

3) Bronco Mendenhall’s November record?  20-3 — all losses to Utah (2005, 2008, 2010).

4) Jake Heaps on Saturday: 22/37 passing for 228 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception.  Utah’s Wynn/Cain QB combo: 15/37 passing for 207 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions.

If you were to ask me who won this game after hearing about the QB play and BYU’s 13-0 lead entering the fourth quarter (especially after seeing Bronco’s career stats in that regard), I would have picked BYU 100 times out of 99. No typo there — I would have been that sure of it.

So how is it that Utah pulled out the victory over BYU 17-16 last Saturday? Was I dreaming? What does this mean for the future of each program and the rivalry? Knowing I probably needed a weekend to think this game over and let it settle in so that I am not overly biased toward BYU and a few suspect plays that occurred late in the game, I decided to wait till today to address these questions.

Unfortunately for Ute fans, it has only gotten worse.

My response in regards to how in the world Utah got the victory on Saturday? Luck, fate, destiny, whatever you want to call it. I will call it luck. There were four particular plays that prove this to be a valid conclusion:

1) Early in the fourth quarter with Utah trailing 13-3, the great Jordan Wynn threw up a bomb down the sideline to DeVonte Christopher. The only problem with this play was that BYU’s Brandon Bradley was all over Christopher. In fact, his coverage was so good that he was able to deflect the ball… right into Christopher’s hands for a touchdown.

2) Following a BYU field goal that put the Cougars up 16-10 with about 7 minutes left in the game, the Utes needed to drive 80-plus yards to score a touchdown. Three brilliant defensive plays later from BYU (or three terrible Jordan Wynn balls that missed receivers by a mile — however you wish to look at it, I look at it both ways), Utah was forced to punt in hopes that their defense could get a stop and give their offense another chance to win the game. Fortunately for the Utes, they shanked a punt about 20 yards that happened to find the leg of a BYU player who was blocking a few yards from the sideline.  The Utes recovered the fumble and got the ball back with great field position and plenty of time on the clock.

3) Two stellar Jordan Wynn passes later, Brandon Bradley intercepted a pass that, in my opinion, was thrown to one of three BYU defenders, not a Ute wide receiver. The instant I saw Bradley intercept the pass I stood up off my couch and yelled at him four or five times to GET DOWN. The last thing I wanted was the Utes to catch some lucky break and have Bradley fumble the ball he had just intercepted right back to Utah. Of course, he fumbled the ball right back to Utah.

4) Fortunately for Cougar fans, after seeing the replay of this specific fumble mentioned above, we had no need to fear as it was very clear Bradley’s knee was on the ground well before the Utah player forced the fumble. I was not even sweating it. I had no doubt. Three different camera angles, almost a full second of knee-ground contact before the ball was stripped, no problem. BYU ball, 100 times out of 98. Interestingly enough though, despite the advantage of video replay — in slow motion, viewed multiple times — the booth review official ruled the play a fumble, and the Utes were given the ball. At that point there was no question, they were going to score. They did, and won the game 17-16. BYU was not meant to win this game.

To the Ute fans that want to argue that this was actually not luck, I want to ask them what the odds are of Bradley deflecting a perfectly played ball upwards right to the falling Christopher for a touchdown. I want to know what the odds are of the Ute punter shanking one of many punts he kicked all game directly off the BYU player’s leg with such impeccable timing. I want to know the odds that an interception is fumbled right back to the same team that had just turned the ball over — in the same play.

I looked this one up to help you out. It is less than 2 percent.

I want to know, first, the odds that the review booth official assigned to this BYU/Utah game did not have a brain, and then, second, the odds that despite clear evidence the play should be reversed, he decided to call the play as stands. How many times has this happened? Two or three maybe? Ever? Then, after all is said and done and you have calculated the precise numbers in each of these situations, I want you to tell me the odds that they all happen, in the same game, in the same quarter, benefiting the same team. I am 100 percent serious. I want a number.

Aside from dwelling on the past, I decided it would be better for me to take what I learned from this game and figure out what it means for the future of the programs at BYU and Utah. I was not being sarcastic throughout the entire article in reference to Jordan Wynn by accident. If he is the future of the Utah football program at quarterback, then the move to the Pac-12 next season could be a brutal one. He has yet to blossom into a QB that you can trust and that can make big plays, and he definitely has not shown up for any big games (see TCU, Notre Dame, BYU).

I do not and will never blame Utah for bailing on the Mountain West Conference to accept the Pac-12 invitation and, despite the attitude of the majority of this article, I actually will root for Utah to do well in the Pac-12 and represent the MWC and smaller schools in the best way they possibly can. Unfortunately for them, however, I do not foresee anything great in the near future.

BYU, in my opinion, has a much brighter future. The way Jake Heaps played Saturday in his first ever BYU-Utah rivalry game, and considering it was at Rice-Eccles Stadium, was impressive to say the the least. Even after the Cougars found themselves down one point with a couple minutes to go and after two absurd play calls from Robert Annae to start the potentially game-winning drive, Heaps stepped up and looked as poised and composed as any quarterback in the nation playing at any level. His arm is there, his accuracy is there, the IQ is there — but what I had not seen prior to this game was how he would perform in crunch time.

He stepped up. Big time.

Oh yeah, I do not think I mentioned this either, he is still a 19-year-old true freshman.  The independent schedule that BYU will face in the near future will make it tough to win every game, but one thing I do not doubt is that Jake Heaps gives the Cougars the best chance to do just that.

Many people are wondering what will happen to the BYU-Utah rivalry. I personally do not think it is going anywhere. Yes, it is true that both schools have parted ways and left the MWC, but if last Saturday’s game showed us one thing, it is that both schools — players and fans united — care about this game more than any other. I do not see that changing whether they meet in November or September.

To end, I would like to share one last final stat, perhaps the best of them all:

1) BYU-Utah in the last 15 years: 12 games decided by 7 points or less, the most by any two teams that have faced one another in the nation.

I learned that this is what counts. This is what the rivalry is all about.

Before the day began, we saw a possibility for one of two non-automatic qualifying schools (#3 TCU or #4 Boise St.) to jump either #1 Oregon or #2 Auburn and have a shot at playing for the national title. Oregon found themselves facing a a tough Arizona opponent, but were expected to win the game without much of a problem despite their recent struggles against Cal Berkeley.

Auburn, though, was set to play the defending national champion Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, and many analysts (including myself) predicted Alabama to pull the upset. If this were to have happened, the nation would have been looking at the likely chance that a non-automatic qualifying school like TCU or Boise St. would be given an opportunity to play in the national title game for the first time in the BCS era.

What did we all see instead? An early Christmas present given to the BCS and everything the flawed system stands for.

If I were the BCS commissioner and could have scripted the way each of these three football games ended today so that the system already in place would stay in tact, I probably could not have asked for a better outcome. I would have hoped for an incredible performance from Heisman Trophy candidate Cameron Newton and the Auburn Tigers, and then gotten more than that in a most impressive 24-point come-from-behind victory over Alabama, 28-27.

I would have asked for a dominating performance from the Oregon Ducks and their offense to show any doubters from last week that they are the real deal. They succeeded without any problems by beating Arizona 48-29 and, more importantly, outscoring the Wildcats 34-10 in the second half.

Then, if all else had failed, I would have prayed to God for a miraculous upset from the Nevada Wolf Pack over Boise St. to prove to all the small school and underdog homers out there that they really just aren’t that good. That happened, and in the most sickening way.

This is where the real me enters. I am as big a fan of the small school and underdog team as you can find. I love the idea of a playoff in college football and think that teams like Utah, TCU and Boise St. have proven that, on any given day, they can compete with any team in the country. We were on the brink of something amazing to happen this season in college football, and on this Black Friday, we saw it all come tumbling down.

BCS: 1. Justice and equality in college football: 0.

The worst part for me is that we may never see an opportunity like this again. Is it too much to ask for a small school to have their shot? Or for everyone in the nation to recognize that the current non-playoff BCS system is flawed? Is it too much to ask for either Oregon or Auburn to lose a tough game today and Boise St. to get a big win on the road? We failed on all accounts. In my opinion, we may have lost our only chance at ever seeing a playoff implemented in college football today.

For me at least, I will always remember today as my true Black Friday.

A decade ago, it was even somewhat enjoyable. We would analyze the stats like pundits, spout our opinions, and fantasize about the hypothetical. How would one of these non-BCS schools do against the big kids? Do non-BCS schools belong in the championship picture?

Since there exists no playoff in college football (although their basketball counterparts seem to pull it off just fine), fans of the game live and die by this kind of conjecture. This age of parity turns the heat up on these discussions to a full-blown boil. Competently run programs like Utah, TCU and Boise State (and until recently BYU) annually produce quality teams that stir the BCS pot. To complicate things further, the BCS has been around long enough to not only betray its own futility, but also render our arguments pointless.

To illustrate, let’s run through two generic conversations inspired by real life events. I’ve volunteered Jake Welch of PB&J Report fame to participate in these hypothetical conversations with me. Here we go.

Jake: “I think if TCU runs the table and finishes undefeated, they deserve to play for the national title.”

Me: “What about Boise State?”

Jake: “They’ve had a great couple of seasons, but they don’t play any quality opponents. Their schedule is so weak.”

Me: “They beat TCU last season.”

Jake: “True, but I think TCU was a little shell shocked by their first BCS bowl. It’s not like Boise State beat them by a lot, and I think TCU is a better team overall. They’ve beaten Oregon State more soundly than Boise State did this year, plus Boise State looked less than impressive in their last win against San Jose State.” (Side note, just to underscore the subjectivity of these types of arguments: Boise State beat San Jose State by 29 points. That’s more than four touchdowns.)

Me: “Ah. I see.”

Notice that Jake (representing all of us) uses the same logic of transitivity that has become the all-powerful measuring stick of college football rankings. In economics, we use the same logic to figure out which types of goods consumers will buy. Essentially, if a person prefers A over B and B over C, then that person must also prefer A over C. Notice further that Jake also takes into consideration margin of victory of common opponents and “style points” in order to determine which bundle/team was hypothetically preferred/better than the other.

While transitivity is a fine way to determine relatively stable consumer preferences, it turns out it is a really bad way to determine who would win a football game. (If you’re not buying this assertion, please refer the entire 2007-2008 college football season).

Next conversation:

Jake: “I think that if Alabama wins the rest of their games, they should go to the National Championship game over TCU or Boise State, even if either of those teams is undefeated.” ¹

Me: “Why is that? Isn’t losing zero games better than losing one?”

Jake: “Well, Alabama plays a much tougher schedule. TCU or Boise State would get shredded in the SEC, or any other power conference.”

Me: “Yeah, but Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl two seasons ago. And Boise State beat Oklahoma in 2007.”

Jake: “True, but I just don’t think Alabama cared about that game very much, having just lost the SEC title game and their shot at the national championship. They weren’t motivated to play, and after Utah went up big on them, they scored 17 straight points. Obviously they were the better team. And Boise State got lucky that Oklahoma wasn’t ready for their trick plays.”

Me: “Ah. Right.”

Nauseous yet? Some interesting points about this second conversation: First, this is just a minimal example of the conjectural firestorm that went on after both of those BCS bowl victories by Utah and Boise State. It was out of control — small conference fans demanding that their teams get respect and automatic bids; large conference fans playing damage control and diminishing their losses by saying it was bad luck and that the teams they were facing were so pathetic they underestimated them and didn’t try hard.

Second, the logic is entirely wrong. And it’s our friends at the Bowl Championship Series that deserve the blame. Because their subjective ranking system means everything, we (and the computers) must try to figure out who has the best team(s). We have to do this because the match-up in the championship game depends on figuring it out. Hence, the speculation.

But there is a major problem with this. As much as we try, the sport of football is not set up to divine who is the better team based on one single game alone. The sample size is insufficient. We draw a conclusion that Boise State is just as good or better than Oklahoma because they beat them in one game. But in reality, the only conclusion we are allowed to draw from that magical Fiesta Bowl is that Boise State scored more points than Oklahoma did by the time the game ended.

This is like those loudmouths that, the second there is a big snowstorm in April or May, start sarcastically saying “Wow, I guess we’re really going through this whole ‘global warming’ thing after all.” They simply come across as uneducated. Arguing that climate trends can be proven or disproven based on the weather for one day — for even one week or one month or one year — is the acme of foolishness. (The same goes for arguing that a very warm day in December or January means global warming, in fact, exists.)

Yet this is what college football forces us to do week in and week out — and I can’t take it anymore.

Last season, TCU played as perfect a regular season as you could play against as strong a schedule as you could ask for, excepting the SEC schedule. And instead of getting a shot at the national title, they got shafted to play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Then, when they lost, everyone used it as proof that climate change was bogus — that they weren’t a good team after all. Their entire season must have been a fluke since they lost a game.

Using one game to draw valuations and conclusions about teams as a whole is (and this is important) so unbelievably pointless. But we have to. It’s college football. There’s no playoff. It’s unavoidable.

But that’s not entirely true. There is one way to avoid it. Watch football on Sunday.

In the blessed world of professional football, there are no subjective rankings. There are no “style points” and margin of victory analysis. There are no conclusions drawn about one team beating another aside from the winning team simply scored more points than the losing team. Every team has a one-in-four chance of winning their division and making the playoffs — and some are even invited in as a wild card in case they don’t. When the defending champion Saints lost at home to lowly Cleveland two weeks ago, their season was not over. They are still in the race for their division and firmly in control of their own destiny. Compare that with the crushing effects of BYU’s loss to Florida State last year, just two weeks after beating Oklahoma.

In the refreshing land of the NFL, a win is what it was meant to be — a reflection of who was the better team on that day. Not a means of building up your resume in order to make the case that you’re hypothetically better than everyone else, so you can play in a championship game decided by a computer that takes into account whether you beat your opponent by enough points and with enough flash. Being hypothetically better means nothing in the NFL. Just ask the hypothetically better Indianapolis Colts after the clock read all zeroes at last years’ Super Bowl. No one was up in arms claiming the Colts were unmotivated but were still the better team in actuality. All of that conjecture would have been comically pointless.

Yet, in college football, that kind of postulating is what fills much of what we discuss on a daily and weekly basis. It will form the foundation of the discussion this season as we await the computer results regarding whether yet another undefeated team from a small conference deserves to play for the national championship over a one-loss BCS conference team. And no matter what happens, some people will be unhappy and unfulfilled.

For those of us seeking a bit of rationality in our football experience, the NFL provides the objective breath of fresh air.

—————

¹At the time of writing, Alabama was still a one-loss team. They have since lost to LSU, making this conversation a little outdated. But it is still an accurate representation of the logic involved in college football debates, so it stayed.

You can stream the podcast by simply clicking on the link below, or you can download it to your computer by right-clicking the link and selecting “Save Link As” from the menu.

Listen to: Rhombus Podcast 022 — The PB&J Report (2010.09.04)

It’s been a little over a week since the college football season ended, but for some reason the sports world is still stuck on the subject — and it’s all thanks one of the largest coaching shake-ups in recent memory.

The big moves in coaching started with Brian Kelley bolting Cincinnati for Notre Dame and Mark Mangino “leaving” Kansas. However, if there is anyone to blame is this situation, it’s Texas Tech wide receiver Adam James. This entitled punk couldn’t handle some good ol’ fashioned punishment from Mike Leach and complained to his famous daddy. Daddy complained to Tech and luckily the administration wanted Leach out too. James’ whining gave Tech the perfect excuse to can Leach and get out of paying his $800,000 bonus.

This one simple act of immaturity set the college football world in motion. Don’t believe me? Let’s walk through it together.

As soon as Tech fired Leach on such short notice, Pete Carroll over at USC started to think about his future. He began to wonder if NCAA officials would catch up to him and punish him for the gifts he arranged for his buds Reggie Bush and Joe McKnight. It didn’t help that McKnight claimed the car he was driving belonged to his “baby momma’s boss.” If that’s not a legitimate excuse, I don’t know what is.

That being said, Pete was looking for any way out of USC, so much that he jumped at the chance to coach one of the least talented teams in the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks. (I just discovered the only difference between Seattle and settle is an A. Chew on that for a bit.)

After Carroll bolted USC, Tennessee coach Lane Kiffin found himself with a perfect opportunity to return to SoCal (where he belongs), leaving the Vols with a vacant head coaching position. Some think things will settle down once the Volunteers find a new coach, but that is absurd. This is just the beginning of what I am predicting to be the wildest and zaniest college football offseason ever. If I had it my way, this is how it would all go down:

Tennessee’s athletic director promised to have a new coach hired by the weekend and there is no better man for the job than Mike Leach. The Vols make a hard play for the swashbuckling pirate-lover, but he has already been snatched up by a real pirate — Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis. Turns out the Raider Nation was also in search of a coach after the firing of Tom Cable (hasn’t really happened yet, but will soon) and Leach’s antics will pale in comparison to what has happened in Oakland previously.

Tennessee couldn’t get their first man but, in a whirlwind miracle, they land Alabama coach Nick Saban. How exactly did that work? Well, the Buffalo Bills offered Saban their head coaching position the night after the national championship game — and he accepted. He flew up to Buffalo the next day and got stuck in a snow storm, ultimately realizing he has made the biggest mistake ever. He rushes back down to Alabama only to find the Tide have heard about his alleged deal with Buffalo and promoted Kirby Smart to head coach, leaving Saban with no other option but to go to Tennessee.

After all that is cleared up, things will seem to settle down — until another shockwave hits! After the Arizona Cardinals win the Super Bowl lose in the second round of the playoffs, head coach Ken Whisenhunt will decide to “go Urban Meyer” and leave the game for a few years. Kurt Warner follows his lead and retires, leaving Matt Leinart with the starting job.

After the Cardinals go searching for a head coach, Leinart goes to the front office and requests they hire the man who was his offensive coordinator at USC when he won the Heisman. That’s right — none other than Lane Kiffin! Seeing how Kiffin is undoubtedly spineless and greasy, he gleefully takes the job and ends his four-week tenure at USC. Do we doubt this would actually happen? Never.

Lane tries to get his dad, Monte, to come along and be the Cardinals’ defensive coordinator, but he is ashamed of his son’s relentless backstabbing and refuses to the job. Instead he stays at USC as the defensive coordinator under new head coach Jack Del Rio — who initially said he wanted to stay in Jacksonville, but after this fiasco he will return to USC.

So now this leaves an opening in Jacksonville. Who becomes the coach there? Funny you should ask. Everyone thinks Florida coach Urban Meyer has been taking time off to recover from his health issues this whole time — when in reality it’s a ploy to sneak out of Gainesville! This might seem out of character, but he became an egomaniac just from spending one year in the same conference as Lane Kiffin. (Also, it’s no secret that Meyer’s personal mission in life is to prove to the world that Tim Tebow can play quarterback at the next level. By taking the Jacksonville job, he is now able to draft Tebow and implement his offensive system.)

That’s pretty much what happens with the big guns at this point. I didn’t mention John Gruden going back to his alma mater (Dayton) or what will happen when Rich Rodriguez gets fired three games into the 2010 season, but that’s small potatoes. The biggest question of all is who will take over when Joe Paterno dies on the sideline in a “freak accident” that reeks of Bobby Bowden? That’s beyond even my predictive abilities.

Well, I guess we will just have to wait and see if this plays out the way I’ve planned. Either way, it’s going to be very entertaining.

Jake Welch is a regular sports correspondent for Rhombus. He also appears on the magazine’s sports podcast, the PB&J Report.

You can stream the podcast by simply clicking on the link below, or you can download it to your computer by right-clicking the link and selecting “Save Link As” from the menu.

Listen to: Rhombus Podcast 007 — The PB&J Report (01.12.10)